Of all of the major weather models I follow, there is only one that is still predicting a Florida landfall. That is the good news, the bad news is that particular model, the ICON (German), was very accurate very early on. The other bad news is that if Florida is spared there is a pretty good chance the Carolinas will have some contact with Dorian

24 hours have brought the models into better consensus and it looks like the northern Bahama Islands of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco will be hit with a strong cat 4 or a cat 5 hurricane with devastating 150+ mph winds and 2-5 feet of rain by Tuesday.

The timing for the Carolinas is Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Of course, I will be keeping an eye on things, if something changes over the next day I will post, if not, I will post a Carolina update on Monday.

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