So far this storm has been a bad news good news scenario. That continues after the latest model runs. The recon data is suggesting that the storm’s intensity is leveling off, not weakening yet, just not intensifying.
Dorian’s 912mb pressure with 185 mph winds is impressive but it is far from the strongest Atlantic Hurricane which was Wilma in 2005 which hit 882mb. So for now, it occupies the 13 strongest spot for the Atlantic. You could say that it is the strongest ever to hit Abaco, but thats not typically how you would judge a hurricane unless you’re on the Weather Channel.
Good news: Most models, including the ICON take it north before reaching landfall. Bad news: The NHC/NOAA hurricane model, the HWRF, now shows this storm making landfall near New Smyrna Beach (south of Daytona).
It shows it making landfall as a Cat 3 very early morning Wednesday. It is just 1 run, but it definitely needs to be watched.
The Euro is still very consistent in keeping the worst of the storm off of Florida’s east coast.