Yesterday when I posted I said I would only post today if something changed. Something changed.
The last 3 runs of the German ICON model have continued tracking Dorian further west (closer to Florida). Last night the EURO decided to track just a little further west, not to be outdone the GFS also tracked Dorian further west.
Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of at least 160 mph and it is heading into Abaco stall over Grand Bahama hopefully the 15,000 residents of those northern Bahama Islands have left, I can’t imagine the devastation we will see in a few days when they get people in there. The further west track also means Bimini would be under the gun.
The significance of the further west track is that if the scenario that the ICON and GFS are suggesting plays out, category 1 or 2 Hurricane conditions could occur all of the way up Florida Coast as well as the rest of the SE US.
Here is the wind swath for the overnight GFS run. Don’t pay attention to the numbers (wind speeds) because the GFS is a low-resolution model, therefore, it is sampling more space and spreading out the wind intensity over a greater area (notice it shows a peak of 110 on Grand Bahama and it will likely be over 150). What I am trying to show you is the track of the greatest winds.
So there is a lot of time and things can and likely will change. The NHC has already moved the track slightly west as of its most recent update.
I will briefly update after the new model runs come out.