I briefly mentioned a pattern change a couple days ago. I suppose you could say that what is coming ins a pattern change, but it doesn’t appear to be something that will stick around for a long time. Nevertheless, we will see a few pop-up storms Friday afternoon. Saturday the temps should moderate (cooler) with a few more storms firing in the afternoon, a little more widespread than we have seen. By Sunday the models are indicating a disturbance coming through that should affect the northern 3/4 of the border counties. We may even get a few heavy rainers out of it. Temperatures should moderate quite a bit cooler during the day. As the system passes temperatures should stay cooler and be dry until another system arrives by mid-week possibly bringing even cooler and wetter conditions. Cool and wet enough?? We will see but it would not surprise me if we see that snow level drop to just below 12,000 between Wednesday and Thursday.

I will talk more about that second system on Monday, It is too early to put a whole lot of faith in its track yet. After that, it looks like it warms back up a bit a dries out again.

I think it is still too early to talk about Winter, I have reached out to some folks I follow who usually start talking about Winter around now. They tell me they are waiting to get past the peak of hurricane season. If you have followed me for a while you know Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) and tropical activity (MJO) circling the equator have the biggest effect on Winter weather.

You may remember back on August 17th when I commented on the Herald article about the heat, I concluded with saying the article was probably just too early because the real heat was coming for a two-three week period. Now, three weeks later we are sure due for a break. I probably won’t post over the weekend unless we get some severe weather, then on Monday, I should have a better handle on the mid-week disturbance.

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