Hopefully, this doesn’t surprise anyone.  A negatively-tilted trough (yay!) is going to work its way through the area today. Showers should kick up in most places by noon. Obviously, the heaviest rain amounts will fall at elevation but most everyone should get some rain out of this. The snow level should stay above 13,500′ with this one but you never know. Hint: Midweek it looks like a similar set-up with a more potent and cooler front so I will be expecting snow levels to drop a bit.

Here is the trough at 6 am, this is the type of set up we like to see in the Winter!

NWS issued this Flood Watch:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2019

COZ019-022-081830-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FF.A.0004.190908T1500Z-190909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
427 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2019

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 416 FIRE BURN SCAR IN NORTHWEST LA
PLATA COUNTY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 416 FIRE BURN SCAR IN NORTHWEST LA
PLATA COUNTY.

* FROM 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE FORECASTING
POTENTIALLY PERSISTENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE 416 FIRE
BURN SCAR, WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.

* THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE 416 WILDFIRE BURN SCAR
IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN DUE TO THE THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS AND
FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS NEAR THIS WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AND ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 550 CORRIDOR NEAR HERMOSA SHOULD PREPARE FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH
INFORMATION FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

I will update again with accumulation potential for the area after the morning high-resolution models come out (around 8:30am). But confidence is high with this event the models have not waivered for days.

 

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