The morning models did not initialize well. What this means is what was supposed to be happening by 8 am or 9 am was not happening. This is not unusual with a negatively tilted trough. The fact that it is negatively tilted means it is moving slow and (hopefully) strengthening.  From the radar, it looks like the model is off by at least 2 hours, or it is just plain wrong. Time will tell. Flash flood watches will continue to be issued here for years and are not always indicative of heavy rain, the threshold is .25 inches per hour to issue a flood watch.

The latest high-resolution model favored the west from roughly Lake Durango to Cortez for heavier rain. The prior model 6 hours earlier run favored Gem Village to Pagosa. All areas above 8,500 feet were favored as well. I have seen amounts range from .10″-.90″. So as I said earlier time will tell.

Unless the Euro comes out and is dramatically different, I am going to enjoy Football today!

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