A Better Shot This Time

I love seeing these troughs come in from the Pacific, it shows we are getting closer to Winter. I usually jump the gun a bit on them, especially when the models try to take them further south than they are ready to come at this time of year. Sunday fooled me (and the NWS). I relied too heavily on older model runs, looking back at the later day runs they actually did better than I thought. You have to be careful not to wishcast, and I may have been guilty of that.

The next system predicted to impact us does look like it has a little more to it. I took another look at the Sunday morning run of the Euro, and it was pretty accurate, it showed very little precipitation mostly hundredths here and there which was I think how we ended up. The problem with the “morning” run of the Euro is it doesn’t come out until around 1 pm. Today I waited and it is pretty ambitious with its accumulations.

Check this out, this would be a huge huge model miss if the Euro is wrong.

pamt

Capture

It shows the heavier showers developing after 8 pm tonight through around noon tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if the NWS issues another Flood Watch with the forecast package this afternoon.

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