I probably jumped the gun this morning when I drank the Kool-Aid from the US short term HiRes model. It’s called wishcasting and it is a problem with forecasters at all levels of experience, you see a model run that you hope is right and use that to justify a forecast. I am not immune. I deleted my FB post from this morning, only 2600 people saw it, if you are one of them refer to yesterdays post. I will not change my forecast from yesterday but based on the new Euro I have very low confidence in the accumulations I posted then. What will be correct is the cold air, tomorrow may be a bit colder than today especially in the morning.

In the coming days, we will move into yet another boring weather pattern. The rest of the state, as well as the upper midwest and the northern Rockies, have had an amazing October. Four snowstorms in Denver, Steamboat will finish the month with close to 5 feet of snow, parts of Wyoming and Montana have seen 7 feet of snow this month. I am going to do my best to provide a better look at our winter forecast next week during the boring weather pattern. At the moment it looks like the first 10-15 days of November will be pretty dry with a pattern change coming the last half of the month (right on time?) we will see.

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