With most areas reporting over an inch of liquid, I am pleased with the storm. There are still Warnings posted until Friday but between you and me the bulk of the rain and snow has already fallen in our area. I don’t expect anything significant for most of us. With that being said, there is a lot of moisture on the ground and in the air and a little sunshine can go along ways in stirring the pot and getting some isolated showers going again. So while there is still a chance, it would really surprise me to see anything significant. This line of thought goes against what the short term US HiRes model is showing, but it has been horrible lately.
You may have heard about a pretty active weather period coming up. The models are coming into better agreement that the Monday night storm will largely be a Central and Northern Mountains event with northerly and Northwest flow which does not favor us.
By Wednesday all models are seeing a more significant storm slam into the West Coast and work its way into our area, this storm or series of storms could last until the weekend.
Looking even further out, I have my eye on what looks like a developing Stratospheric Warming Event, while you may not be familiar with it, it results in something you have heard about: the dreaded Polar Vortex.
Strat warms have been around forever, there is nothing unusual about them the phenomenon was discovered in the early 1950s and has been tracked more regularly since the late 1970s. I am not going to nerd out on you at this time and explain everything about SWEs but it has to do with rapid warming at between 50 MB and 10 MB (65,000 feet- 85,000 feet) and the result is cold polar air dropping into the US. If this pans out we could experience below zero temperatures after the first week in December. It is interesting because some of the geeky weather experts that I follow are comparing the upcoming December to conditions experienced in December 1977 and December 1983, both were good snowy Decembers for our area. Too early to buy a new electric blanket, but I like to share some of the factors I look at. This weekend should be nice enjoy it!
I will post again on Saturday or Sunday maybe both depending on what the models see for Monday.