Advisory TonightWinter Storm Watch Already Issued For Second Storm

 

COZ018-019-260700-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0020.191128T0000Z-191201T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0040.191126T0300Z-191127T0000Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
326 PM MST MON NOV 25 2019

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY…

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON…

* WHAT…FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, SNOW…MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES…EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ABOVE 9500 FEET.

*WHAT…FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH, HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH ICY TO
SNOWPACKED ROADS. A DETAILED MAP OF THE SNOWFALL CAN BE FOUND
AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT/WINTER.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

Totals for the second storm from the NWS won’t be cleaned up until Wednesday, although we may see a hint tomorrow afternoon from the NWS. I will release mine on Wednesday.

Both of these storms have been well advertised, I have not gotten into much more than a snapshot of the second storm. Depending on which of the latest model runs you favor this second storm, is showing 2-5 FEET of additional snow from Purgatory to Coal Bank and over to Wolf Creek over a 72 hour period. I will show you the latest graphics in a while but first, we have to talk about the smaller storm that will come in tonight.

As I mentioned this morning the conditions accompanying this storm will make the most out of it. The heaviest snow will fall overnight and should move out by early Tuesday afternoon. Anyone driving west tomorrow should be in great shape by late morning. If you are driving east it will take just a little longer to move out. In Telluride, Silverton, and Red Mountain, and northern Dolores County the flow will switch early Tuesday to Northwest which could briefly enhance snowfall rates.

Here are the precip totals for the first storm. Multiply by 15 to convert the liquid to snow.

GFS

gfs112512zstorm1.png

GFS zoom

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 10.01.29 AM

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 9.45.29 AM

 

Euro first storm

euro112512zfirst

Euro zoom

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 1.19.14 PM.png

Canadian first storm

cmc112512zprecipfirststrm

Canadian zoom

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 1.16.54 PM

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 9.45.29 AM

First Storm Snow Totals

So where does that leave us for tonight and tomorrow morning? Wolf Creek 8-14″, Telluride 7-12″– some of this will fall during the morning tomorrow. Purgatory, Vallecito, northern Dolores County and Pagosa 5-8″. All mid-elevations plus Breen, Long Hollow, Shenandoah (etc) 4-6″–but I think there may be a surprise west of Durango. And then Cortez, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio 1-3″

Second storm

Wednesday travel should be fine most of the day, the snow will break out and start light late afternoon from Purgatory north through the passes. So travel will be best from Tuesday around noon through Wednesday afternoon. Thursday would be best if you didn’t have to travel however the heaviest snow will be late Thursday and Friday during the day.

The GFS and Canadian continue to show crazy snow totals for the second storm, the GFS and Canadian are lower resolution models so they tend to spread the spikes of totals across a larger area, in other words, their margin of error is higher. I have isolated the totals for the period from Wednesday morning when it isn’t snowing (according to the models) to Saturday or Sunday when the Canadian model decides the snow will stop.

The GFS and Euro end with flurries on Saturday, whereas the Canadian keeps moderate to heavy snow on Saturday, it could be leftovers, I am not too worried about it, we should know more by Wednesday before the second storm arrives.

GFS second storm totals

GFS112512zprecipsecond

GFS zoom

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 1.26.11 PM

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 9.45.29 AM

Yeah, I know crazy isn’t it

Euro

euro112512zprecipsecond.png

Euro zoom

 

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 1.24.12 PM.png

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 9.45.29 AM

Can Secondcmc112512zsecond.png

 

Can second local

Screenshot 2019-11-25 at 1.11.22 PM

Screenshot 2019-11-24 at 9.45.29 AM

Interesting that the GFS is now more ambitious than the Canadian. I will probably update around noon, but I will post on FB early so people can post there totals.

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