Early Wednesday Update New Watches and Warnings Issued

I am going to dig into this a little later but there is little change in the models. Guidance from the NWS still supports snow at 6,500 feet, but the models suggest a bit higher for Thursday afternoon an evening.

Reading the Forecast discussion, they basically say they need a little more time to figure this out for tonight and Thursday, there were a lot of different scenarios that could come into play here was a quote from the lead forecaster   “Timing the initiation of precipitation across the area is a bit problematic early this morning so making changes to the current highlights will have to wait for a hopefully clearer picture later
today” What this means is they knew they had to issue the watches and warnings but they are not necessarily happy with what they wrote for the lower elevations, so they are indicating that it may change. We will see, in my experience, they will probably leave it and see how Thursday goes before they change anything. I will talk more about the scenarios, in my next update around noon.

Here is the latest highlight package

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
407 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019

COZ022-023-272100-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0021.191128T0000Z-191130T1200Z/
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio,
and Pagosa Springs
407 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Snow, moderate at times. Total snow accumulations of 4
to 8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches
possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 45 mph.

* WHERE…San Juan River Basin and Animas River Basin.

* WHEN…From this afternoon through late Friday night.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
407 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019

COZ018-019-272100-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0020.191128T0000Z-191201T0000Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Hesperus
407 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to
24 inches with locally higher amounts up to 40 inches. Winds
gusting as high as 45 to 55 mph.

* WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains and Northwest San Juan
Mountains.

* WHEN…From 5 PM today to 5 PM MST Saturday.

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