Early Thursday Update

If you read my posts yesterday you should not be disappointed when you look outside, this was what the Euro had for snow totals by 11 am today. It is currently 6 am most mid-elevation areas have about 2 inches. I don’t think this model run from yesterday afternoon will verify at 11 am, but the point was there was never supposed to be a big amount of snow overnight.

 

Screenshot 2019-11-27 at 5.09.03 PM

Yesterday I also shared my concern regarding snow below 7,500 feet today. The latest model runs show quite a bit of a lull later this morning then later this afternoon a few bands of heavier snow come through, again this may not materialize at the lower elevations. I also mentioned that Thursday may provide some relief for people who are traveling short distances for the Holiday, that is the upside of all of this.

The bigger portion of the storm has always been on Friday, and I think that temperatures may continue to be an issue for lower elevations, basically anyone below 8,000 feet will struggle until the front gets near enough to us to tap into the colder air, at that point, one of two things will happen, the front will either stall and strengthen or it will weaken and speed up.

Here are the latest highlights from the NWS, read my comments afterward.

NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
332 AM MST THU NOV 28 2019

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
SATURDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 18
TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 60 INCHES ABOVE
10,000′ ON THE SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 550 AT RED MOUNTAIN, MOLAS AND COAL
BANK PASSES. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO COULD
CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

 

ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
332 AM MST THU NOV 28 2019

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM MST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES NEAR PAGOSA
SPRINGS, HESPERUS AND ROCKWOOD. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO
45 MPH.

* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.

* WHEN…FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY.  

The biggest takeaway is they changed the amounts for the lower elevations from 4-8 to 3-6 inches and they changed the start time from 5 pm Thursday to 5 am Friday. They also changed the “up to 40 inches” to “up to 60 inches above 10,000 feet on south-facing slopes” that could happen but if it does it will likely be up in the La Platas and in uninhabited southern Hinsdale County

From what I see in the overnight models I would be on the low side of all of those totals,  I will update again after I see some of the morning models.

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