When I first moved here, long-time residents always told me to watch “Flag” (Flagstaff, AZ.) to get an idea of what to expect with an incoming winter storm. It is not that simple of course, however, if the storm stays on track or strengthens as the front goes through Flagstaff, you can get a better handle on the health of the storm. The rain changed over to snow in Flagstaff around 3:30 am and they have had 9 inches of snow in 4 1/2 hours. Heavy snow continues at this hour.
If you were thinking about driving to Arizona here are the current closures due to the intensity of this storm.
A winter storm has closed multiple stretches of highway in Arizona’s high country. Motorists are advised to stay off roads and delay their travel.
Current closures include:
I-17 northbound closed from SR 179 junction to Flagstaff.
I-40 closed from US 93 junction to Winslow.
SR 87 closed from Payson to Winslow.
SR 89 closed from Drake to Ash Fork.
SR 89A closed from Sedona to the I-17 junction.
SR 260 closed from Camp Verde to SR 87.
SR 260 closed from Payson to Show Low.
SR 66 closed from Kingman to 20 miles west of Seligman.
Link to Flagstaff Winter Storm Warning
The biggest question for us is timing at this point and if this storm stays intact it is going to cause quite a commotion as it progresses through the area. There have been some changes to the wording of our Warnings and Advisories as you might expect so I will start there.
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0041.191129T1200Z-191130T1200Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
438 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW BELOW 7,000′ THIS
MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES NEAR PAGOSA SPRINGS, HESPERUS AND
ROCKWOOD. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2019
COZ018-019-300000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-191130T1800Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
438 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TIMES OF HEAVY
SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 30 INCHES ABOVE 10,000′ ON THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. EXPECT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 550 AT RED MOUNTAIN, MOLAS AND COAL
BANK PASSES. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY.
Earlier I referred to the health of the storm, this is what a healthy storm looks like this, (this is not our storm I am using it to illustrate my point) notice the tightly packed concentric circles around the low pressure.
Here is what our storm looked like this morning at 2 am when I wrote my rant earlier.
Rather than tightly packed concentric circles (isobars), we have a bunch of squiggly lines
Here is the current NWS map of our storm, remember the map “drawers” update these every 3 hours and the data is usually 2-3 hours old so the 5am map is up right now.
You can see things have tightened up considerably. It appears here that the storm is strengthening Here is a link to the NWS/WPC map site in case you want to watch this during the day. It is in military time 12z is 5 am, 15z is 8 am etc.
Now that we have a healthy storm an unhealthy storm and a developing storm, here is what used to be referred to as a storm “bombing out”, which now has been replaced by the term “bombogenesis” or a “cyclone bomb”.
Kinda looks like a hurricane doesn’t it?
WSI does a pretty good job with maps, the data side of The Weather Channel, Weather Underground and Intellicast.
Here is the TWC surface map for comparison
Here is that link TWC/WSI map
I was not happy with the way the morning models initialized this morning, that is why I have not gone into model analysis. What that means is the 5 am GFS model just came out and the conditions it was predicting for 8 am were wrong already, if the model misses from the beginning it throws everything off for the rest of the run, the same thing happens with the US NAM model.
If you are a weather nerd follow the links today to check on the “health” of the storm for yourself. Otherwise, I will be monitoring the situation and will post as I see any changes.
Just to repeat what I said earlier if this stays intact and or strengthen and stalls again as it comes across it is going to be a very dangerous storm. If it splits apart or jumps it will just be a brief period of wind and snow with low or no accumulations.
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