First of the advisory from the NWS in Grand Junction. If you read it this morning, it has not changed. My ideas on this storm follow the advisory wording.
Advisory
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MST WED DEC 4 2019
COZ009-017-019-UTZ028-051200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0042.191205T0000Z-191206T0000Z/
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, SILVERTON, RICO,
HESPERUS, AND MONTICELLO
305 PM MST WED DEC 4 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
THURSDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES ABOVE 8,500 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 12
INCHES.
* WHERE…IN UTAH, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. IN COLORADO,
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS
DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY ON THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
My Take
It will be nice to get a few inches of fresh snow for the Ski Areas. That being said I have struggled to get to some of the totals I have been hearing about. Wolf Creek should get 5-8″. I can justify 4-7″ for Purgatory and Mayday. Telluride should also hit the 4-6″ range but most of that will fall tomorrow. 2-4″ for most of the mid-elevations, and zero to a heavy inch” in Durango and lower elevations with up .40 inches of total liquid for the low elevations.
Timing and snow levels once again are the details that make this a difficult forecast, this is common in the early season. In case you had not noticed I have been trying to downplay expectations on this storm. It has some similarities in its approach to last week, but the models overproduced last week and I don’t like storms that weaken as they approach. I have to balance that with the fact that it still appears that the frontal passage could impact travel between 5-8 am tomorrow, so even if the overall totals are lower if you are stuck out in it when it comes through it could still be dicey.
Here is the storm coming onshore at 5 pm our time today.
Here it is at 5 am according to the latest Euro
And here is what is left of it at 2 pm on Thursday
Just to repeat what I said earlier, just because I am predicting some of the lower amounts you have probably read about, things could still get dicey with the frontal passage so please keep that in mind before writing off the storm. I will update early, probably before you wake up.