Nearly all of the models I look were encouraging for low elevation accumulating snow and perhaps a few higher totals in the mid and higher elevations. In other words, things look more promising than they did yesterday. The GFS is the outlier model, I just think it does a poor job across lower elevations. The Euro is showing a little deeper bend in the jet overnight and through tomorrow.
Purgatory got 3 inches overnight and Telluride got 4. I do not expect too much more snow this morning, maybe just a few high elevation snow showers, after 1 pm the showers could increase and expand into other areas. Then we should see a lull before heavier snow picks up again later tonight. Sunday morning looks like the worst time to go anywhere. If you have to travel and are wondering if today would be a better day to drive than Sunday morning it will be.
NWS upped their ante on their Winter Storm Warning here is the new language.
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
236 AM MST SAT DEC 14 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 20 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING TWO FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
* WHEN…UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
I saw an impressive model run from a high-resolution model overnight, I want to see how it compares with the latest run when it comes out. I will post a couple more times (at least) today, it should be a fun day.