In an ideal storm, model runs are very consistent prior to a storm, and they show increasing precipitation totals. This morning the high-resolution model continued to show heavier amounts of for the lower and mid-elevations, which was similar to the overnight model runs for the same model. That ended with the afternoon run where it scaled back considerably the SW flow overnight and tomorrow. The morning GFS and the Euro both showed less snow for all areas tonight and tomorrow. I have been cautious about the dramatic NWS headlines and making sure everyone understands that the higher totals they forecast could fall in very remote areas.
I really like what the morning high-resolution model showed. It may be right but I would have liked to see some agreement from the Euro. It showed some banding of snow tomorrow in the mid-elevations leading to 8 inches of snow in certain areas along the western 160 corridor and the 240 corridor up to Lemon and Vallecito.
I have noticed over the years that the afternoon run of that particular model is not as accurate as the morning run. For that reason, I am leaving that as an option if everything comes together perfect. Option two will be the Euro current run.
I was pretty excited with that morning high-res run. Here it is.
So I will use this as the upside, this shows Mayday with 10 inches, Dwests, Rafter, Shenandoah, Trappers and Long Hollow, Vallecito, Lemon, Forest Lakes, Pagosa and northern Dolores county with up to 8 inches. Breen, Edgemont, DHills and most of the 240 corridor with up to 6 inches. Durango and Bayfield with 2-4 inches. With 1 to 3 inches for Mancos and Cortez Purgatory and Telluride with 8-12 inches and up to 15 inches at Wolf Creek.
For those of you geographically challenged here is the LPC map.
Here is the Euro
Euro is showing overall lower totals with up to 8 inches at Mayday and Purgatory. 3-5 inches for all mid-elevations except Lemon, Vallecito and Forest Lakes with 6 to 8 inches. 1-3 inches for Durango and Bayfield with 2-4 inches for Cortez and Mancos.
Meanwhile here is the latest WSW wording.
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
1251 PM MST SAT DEC 14 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
* WHEN…UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
You’ll notice that 8-inch amount keeps coming back, which corresponds with the models much better than the 20-inch amount.
I say it every time, things can change. And as much as I wish to think these storms are somewhat predictable we never truly know what we’re going to get until it happens. The banding that the morning high-resolution model showed is a real deal that I have seen with cold air and a WSW flow.
Wolf Creek still looks nasty overnight and tomorrow morning as do the 550 passes. Anytime you take into consideration 50 mph wind gusts, even a little bit of snow can be very dicey.
I don’t anticipate any changes to the WSW in the afternoon forecast package. If I see something useful in the afternoon Forecast Discussion I will post later this afternoon.