First things first, before I talk about timing the first storm here are some updated totals from the latest morning weather models.
Here is a nice run from the GFS, the increased totals are from snow continuing Wednesday and some of the day Thursday.
Here is the latest run from the Euro this morning it is just slightly higher than what it had last night that I showed you in my early update this morning.
Here is the latest Canadian model run, it also shows snow on Thursday.
The Canadian also continues to insist that we get another storm on Friday, a significant storm that would affect most of the state including the Front Range as well as surrounding states to our east. That would be a big deal for travel. Let’s not worry about that just yet. The GFS also shows the second storm for the weekend but it tracks it just to our east, however, it is further west with mornings run than the other three runs over the last 24 hours. Finally, the Euro tracks a second big storm across New Mexico with just enough moisture rotating up for 2-8″ depending on location.
Timing and Snow Levels
The models have been in good agreement slowing down the arrival of the storm until later in the day on Tuesday with the heavier snow coming in after dark. They do show some light snow for the higher elevations starting on Tuesday morning, this is not at all inconceivable given the amount of pre-frontal moisture stream into the area, but many times when the models show that light of snow it sometimes does not make it to the ground. Most of the models also agree that the rain/snow line will hover between 6,500′ and 7,000 feet on Tuesday before dropping to 5,000′ or lower by Wednesday morning.
A couple of scenarios are unfolding regarding the duration of the storm, I think another 24 hours of model runs will be helpful before I dive into that, so I will cover that tomorrow afternoon.
Thanks for following! Next Update Monday morning.