All Advisories Are In Place Heavy Snow Starts Tonight

After a week of talking about we are finally here and we will start seeing the effects of this storm later this afternoon in the higher elevations, with things ramping up after dark in other areas. This delay in the onset of precipitation is typical but the timing will benefit us. We want it to start later because it is cooler after dark and we want the greatest surge of precipitation to come when we are colder because it is more efficient for snowmaking-natural snowmaking not manmade.

There are no changes to all of the advisories in place

Here are the latest model runs

Euro last night

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Euro latest overnight run

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Canadian last night

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GFS last night

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GFS overnight latest

gfs122406z.png

As far as the model trends go, they agree on the heaviest surge coming between sunset and sunrise. Then most models show on and off snow falling into the day Thursday with an occasional heavy band on Wednesday. Then The Euro and Canadian are starting to come to an agreement on a band of moderate snow on Friday morning developing over the area for a couple of hours. The GFS is getting closer to that but right now it shows most of that occurring to our east.

It is very difficult to pin down when and where these things will occur until we get closer. There are a number of smaller pieces of energy that get caught up within the parent storm, that is why I call them leftovers. Quite a few times we have gotten as much or more snow from leftovers than we did with the parent storm. This storm is an excellent candidate for leftovers.

I will be monitoring the timing and track today as the storm approaches and will update throughout the day.

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