It appears the center of circulation with the main part of this system is between Vegas and Flagstaff, how when and where that low pressure lifts out of Arizona over the four corners will determine the fate of the storm, but mostly how the storm will affect lower elevations.
The NAM 3km had a wonderful overnight run showing 7.4 inches of snow by Saturday for DRO. 6 hours later the same model showed 1.7 inches in the same time period and scaled back accumulations for all other locations. I can’t assume that the latest is most correct just as I cannot dismiss it. From a Snow Lover’s perspective I sometimes feel like whenever the NWS goes overboard with their totals, it is the kiss of death for our storms. In reality, I think there were some forecasters who were less familiar with our area and were too generous with the ratios they were predicting.
I think the higher elevations will be fine and some mid-elevation areas will do very well but I don’t have reliable data to pass on right now for the lower elevations.
As I mentioned this morning we are right on the eastern fringe of the deepest moisture. At the moment most areas are under easterly flow which isn’t great for most areas, as the system moves and north we should switch to southerly and southwesterly flow. Although the models disagree on accumulation totals they do agree that heavier snow will move in from west to east and north to south before 11 am. The rapid update hourly model now shows that happening between 11 am and 2 pm. If snow picks up where you are let me know where and when especially if you are west of La Plata County.