Here is your 30-second update for those of you not interested in reading further. The heaviest snow has always been forecasted to start between 8-11 am. I was expecting very low accumulations overnight. There have been some changes read on if you wish.
I do the same thing every time I wake up when a storm is approaching: I look outside, I look at webcams, I read the forecast discussion and look to see who wrote it, then I look at the various versions of the surface maps, then I start going through the weather model runs that happened while I was sleeping. Then I try to make sense of it. The first thing I notice is that the person who wrote the discussion is someone that I think does a great job and has a pretty good feel for our area.
The next thing I notice is that someone homogenized the warnings and advisories and trimmed back all of the totals. All day yesterday I thought the NWS was too high on their totals, then in the afternoon, they raised them. When I say they homogenized the advisories I mean they grouped together different forecast zones to make it easier for the forecasters to keep track of. This might make it easier for them, but anyone who has been here for a year knows you can’t lump together Cortez and Pagosa for the same advisory forecast.
Here are the new advisories and the new warning then we’ll take a look at the maps and models.
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191228T0600Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
304 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING…
* WHAT…SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0022.000000T0000Z-191228T1200Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
304 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
8 TO 16 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY,
AND LAKE CITY
304 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN PEAKS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU
AND DALLAS DIVIDE.
* WHEN…UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT
Here is the satellite the low pressure is in Arizona and it is pumping in moisture.
In the animated version of this, you can see that we are on the eastern side of the heaviest flow. This system is supposed to move northeast bringing the heaviest snow to our area starting after 8 am. The short term models should be out by then, I want to see if the new runs are in agreement with what they were showing overnight-which was very impressive.