January First Look

Last year we had very little snow in December until New Year’s Eve then we had a big storm which wrapped up on January 2nd. Things were quiet until January 7-8th when we had a decent storm. Then things were quiet again until January 13th when we had another storm and the storm train rolled through on January 14th, 16th, 18th, and 19th then no snow until February 6th.

I point this out because I already have people giving up on this Winter, and last year there were people concerned that we were done after the New Year’s storm.

Here we are on January 2nd again, and it looks mostly dry for 7-9 days (again) before the pattern flips back to one that favors storm development in the West.

Here is what the pattern looks like overall between now and next Thursday.

Eurothrough19.png

The blue areas are the best areas for troughs to develop, the yellow areas are where zonal flow and ridging will take place with a low chance of storm development. This is the Euro Ensemble of 51 model members but the Canadian and GFS ensembles look the same.

Here are what the next 8-9 days after the 7th/8th look like.

Euro Ensembles

euroenshgts10day.png

GFS Ensembles

gfshgts10day.png

Interesting that this falls during the same 10 day period as last year January 8th-18th. Now I can’t tell you this far out how much snow or how many storms will track through our area, but I can say that all of the Ensemble models are agreeing on a good chance for a flip to a stormy pattern beginning in 7 to 10 days. So as you get through the weekend and next week don’t worry, enjoy the slightly warmer temperatures, Winter is far from over.

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