The Models Agree To Disagree

The Euro is trying to bring a couple of light snow events late Thursday and Friday as well as late Saturday and Sunday to our area. The GFS is keeping the activity to our north and moving energy quickly to the plains.

As I have said many times before, the Euro and GFS both have a bias that is nearly the opposite of each other. The Euro tends to dig storms deeper into the west and the GFS tries to hurry storms across the US without giving them a chance to deepen in the west.

In the morning operational runs of the GFS and Euro that is clearly happening. This is not unusual but what is unusual is they are in near-complete agreement with the trough position as shown in the upper air heights parameters of both models. That usually means model error.

Here is where the GFS sticks the western trough for Thursday night at 11 pm.

gfs500mb

Here is the trough position with the Euro

euro500mb

The trough position is very similar, the difference is about 100 miles further east with the GFS.

Given the similarity, the storm track should be close.

Here are the forecasted conditions by the Euro for Thursday night at 11 pm.

gfsmpfr06z.png

You can see above that the Euro has the heart of the storm from Central Arizona to NW New Mexico.

Here is the GFS storm track for the same time.

gfsmp.png

What happened here? The GFS never digs the trough in deep enough into the west to tap into some pacific moisture.

Hopefully, over the next 48 hours, the models will come together. The Euro makes more sense given the trough position shown on both the GFS and Euro. If the Euro is showing its bias of being too deep with the storm track, even better because that would move the track further north out of New Mexico and across SW Colorado.

Even if we end up with a perfect storm track, there is not a lot of moisture and there is fairly limited upside with the totals being between 3-8 inches, again, that is not what the models show yet, but if things shift a little north and everything is perfect, that is probably the maximum upside unless a few other things change.

Looking out at next week here are the average temperature anomalies for days 5-10 Saturday 1/11- Wednesday 1/15.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-9176000.png

This is showing daily temps between 7-13 degrees below average, this was the Euro, the GFS is similar but not quite as cold.

With the models disagreeing among themselves,  and the GFS out of phase with itself, it is not a great idea to look too much further into the future. I like what the Euro is doing, let’s hope it starts moving the track north for Thursday/Friday. Next update Tuesday.

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