The models have agreed more on the fact that the small storm will mostly miss us, a piece to the north a piece to the south. Very light snow will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening and move out on Friday. The most snow will fall in and around Telluride but it should only accumulate 3-6 inches with a chance of slightly higher totals around Red Mountain. 0-3 inches will fall in other areas. Not very exciting, I know, but another system that has the potential to have a better storm track may track through Sunday night and Monday but at the moment there is still no consensus among the models.
The ridge in the west is and has been routing storms to our north over the ridge then into the plains states. That is still the case but from time to time a piece can slip under the ridge. The GFS and Euro have been arguing about how long it will take to break down that ridge and direct storms into a more favorable track for SW Colorado. To me, it appears that it will happen between January 13th-20th which is a few days to a week longer than what I expected last week. Ridges don’t last forever so be patient it will happen.
I could list all of the potential storms and when they will hit, but the models are changing frequently and it is best if we just concentrate on one at a time. The GFS, in fact, has been going crazy with snow between the 15th and 23rd. The Euro operational run only goes to the 18th but shows a noticeable uptick in snow between the 14th and 18th so we will see.
Next Update Thursday around noon.