8:15 am
I originally posted this around 4:45 this morning, I forgot to share it on Facebook, sorry for the delay. It is now 8:15 am and it appears most locations at least from Durango, west to Mancos have already received about an inch of snow with moderate snow showers. The snow came in with a little bit more authority than the models depicted and I expected. It looks like the southern feature is a little stronger than the latest models picked up on, we may get a few higher totals than what the models showed.
Also, Telluride is getting snow on the front side of the system, I was expecting that to come on the backside so we may get a big surprise there by tomorrow morning. After the front passes the flow will switch to NW so Ouray to Red Mountain could be looking at the potential for decent snow with a Gorge (upslope) event.
4:45 am
Yesterday I talked about the southern feature in Northern New Mexico possibly coming into play, but it looks like it will mostly affect New Mexico, if the timing works out Kirtland, Farmington, and Aztec could get 1-3 inches of snow.
For those of us further north it looks like heavy occasional flurries and I would not change my forecast from yesterday with 1-2 inches for Purgatory of we are lucky and 2-4 inches for higher portions of Dolores County. 2-5 for Telluride, and perhaps a few higher totals along Red Mountain Pass.
The models are still trying to figure out how much of an impact a disturbance to our south will cause on Wednesday, I expect minimal accumulations. Then we should warm up considerably for the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. That should be short-lived because a week from tomorrow is my birthday, and it is a requirement that it snows on my birthday. That will be the next chance for something decent to develop. That is my story and I am sticking to it.