Two things are apparent to me after my Update yesterday: 1) The cloud model I was using did not do a very good job, there seem to be some slight inversions in a few areas that the model continues to miss on. 2) My readership is way down because of everything going on around the area. I understand that completely and I will keep my comments brief and to the point today and may wait to expand on the comments until early Monday morning as it looks like the snow will not start in most areas until midday at the earliest.
Snow ratios will start at 10-1 below 7,000 feet and drop throughout the day, if it is still snowing by dark, ratios should be at 17-1. Above 8,500 feet snow ratios will start at 12-1 and quickly rise to 18-1 by the end of the day.
Here are the liquid-equivalent precipitation totals. All of these models are showing higher amounts near Vallecito.
GFS
Euro
Canadian
The Canadian looks the best, but it does not look unrealistic-like it sometimes does.
After this moves out, there is another shot of high country snow late in the week, then a better-looking storm potentially developing around the 10th.
I do expect to see a blanket Winter Weather Advisory issued for our areas above 8,000′ no later than Sunday. Have fun out there and be safe!
Jeff,
What is your expectation for Telluride for the Mon/Tues storm? Other sources seem to indicate totals are falling and won’t be that significant. Hoping that’s wrong!!…?
Thanks