First Storm Monday-Wednesday

A cold front will drop into northern Colorado late tonight and stall to our north. Light snow will accompany the front. During the day on Sunday, light snow will be possible, mostly north of Durango, but a few flurries can’t be ruled out as the cold front slowly moves south. Monday the snow will continue to drift south with light on-and-off snow.  Meanwhile, in southern California a closed low pressure will drift onshore bringing showers to San Diego, the low will drift east bringing showers to Arizona and western New Mexico during the day on Monday.

Monday night the low pressure drifts close enough to increase the snow over our area. If the cold front drops far enough south, and the low opens up and crosses northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico, we will get some measurable snow during the day on Tuesday.

This is a very difficult storm to predict. Historically,  about half of the time, these storms set up favorably for Montezuma and La Plata and Archuleta Counties. The other half of the time they stay mostly in New Mexico and open up just over Archuleta County and Wolf Creek Pass. Usually, either scenario works out golden for Wolf Creek.  This is the type of storm that will have forecasters guessing and have weather apps flipping and flopping back and forth as the models try to get a better handle on the track of the storm.

Here are the totals through Wednesday morning for the first storm. With this storm track, it is going to be difficult to have confidence in any of the totals for areas other than Wolf Creek.

Canadian

2812zCMCthruwed

NAM- North American Model

2812zCMCthruwed

Here is the Euro

2812zeurothruweds

In stark contrast to the other four models here is the German ICON

ICON

And finally, the GFS which looks more believable than the others to me.

2812zgfsthruwed

After that storm leaves the models are planning on a larger storm coming in late next weekend or Monday, about 48 hours later than what they had showed the last few days.

Here are what the models (GFS, Canadian & Euro) now show for 10-day totals.

Canadian

can10day

Euro

euro10day

GFS

2812zgfs10day

Next Update Sunday around 1 pm.

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