Model Trend Is Not Our Friend

The midday models did not do us any favors. The NWS did not cancel the Winter Storm Watch. I get it, they own it now, and if the storm track changes overnight or during the day tomorrow they could be in good shape. If it doesn’t as they say here in the afternoon forecast discussion there will “little or no impacts”. Here are their words:

” a closed low forms over California overnight and drops slowly over Baja
California by late Monday afternoon. Forecast confidence is low
with the exact track of this system Monday evening through
Tuesday. Model to model consistency is low with this system. A more
northern track would bring significant snow to the southern San
Juan mountains and adjacent foothill locations, while a more
southern track would result in a little or no impacts. Have
decided to decrease amounts a bit with a blended forecast which
takes a more southern track approach with the best focus over the
Wolf Creek Pass region through Tuesday with lesser amounts
elsewhere across the south. However, confidence is low so stay
tuned to the forecast for the latest updates. Due to the uncertainty
with this system have decided to continue the winter storm watch
for southern San Juan mountains until better model consensus.”

As I said earlier Wolf Creek will get the most snow in the area. Next Update Monday.

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