Step 1 Look Outside

People think I am joking when I say look outside, but it is one of the most important things to do as a forecaster. Yesterday all of the models showed an initial surge of moisture around 3 am. It is not there.

Step 2, check out the surface maps. This maneuver is slightly overrated. We can bring back actors who are dead and sell hundreds of millions of dollars at movie theaters very easily with CGI. After billions and billions of dollars spent at the Department of Commerce (NOAA) we can’t come up with a useful surface map at the WPC (weather prediction center) and it gets more confusing when trying to compare it to the privateers who have tried to develop their own (Wunderground).

Step 3, check out the models. The models show snow starting after 7am in some areas. They have really tamed the storm and show it to be a pretty weak system coming across New Mexico with such light forcing that even the lay-up areas like Wolf Creek get a near miss with less than 5 inches during the day. Heavy flurries with no accumulation to 2-3 inches are likely for the rest of our forecast area. I know, it sucks.

Usually, a big miss like this leads to severe weather for Gulf Coast states so my followers from Texas to Florida will probably see this storm peak out. February 1st is the beginning of the early severe storm/tornado season in the south.

Since the models this year cannot accurately predict weather 12 hours away I am not going to talk about our other chances of snow in the coming days yet, but winter is not over yet.

Next Update later today.

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