Back To The Drawing Board

A couple of chances of snow over the next 7-10 days. That is the good news, the bad news is the two storms look eerily similar to roller coaster we just went got off of. Another system caught up in the N/NW flow which slowly drapes its way south through Colorado Sunday night through about Tuesday, then a second storm develops Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front back-doors the area from the midwest while an area of low pressure moves into New Mexico and draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and then blows up as severe weather on the southern plains.

While the sea surface temps don’t verify it, this season sure has looked like a La Nina with the blocking high pressure directing these systems overland north of California.

El Nino maps

We need a significant pattern change and the long term models are starting to align for that change to occur at the end of February and the beginning of March. That is not to say we can’t get big snow in this current pattern, it’s possible, but everything has to come together perfectly and we have not seen that happen since December.

NOAA’s long term CFS model shows that pattern change from February to March



These are not temperatures but they reflect high (yellow and orange) and low-pressure (blue shades) represent low pressure with a mostly northerly storm track.

Here is the March upper air forecast


This shows a stormy pattern for most of the US with the storms spending more time over water and coming into Southern California.

I am not confident enough to display the snow forecasts from the models yet, perhaps by the weekend.  Stay tuned! Next update on Friday.

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