Models Erase The Snow

This storm is going to stall out and very little moisture will make it south of the Central Mountains. Even Telluride and Silverton Mountain are going to be hard-pressed to generate snow greater than 3″. The main difference between yesterday and today is some of the models are trying to drive that cold front down further by late Tuesday which would result in another chance of light snow for areas north. It is almost not worth writing about.

By Wednesday, the models start to diverge and things get complicated. As I mentioned yesterday there are signs that we may see a pattern change in 7-9 days with a big storm coming from the right direction for our area.

If the snow does develop over the higher areas of 550 it will probably be late Sunday and it will probably be done by early Monday.

Just in case you are headed to the Northern and Central mountains here is what you can expect from the GFS and Euro.





The ratios up north will average about 15-1 so there will likely be more snow than appears on these models.

So we’ll keep grinding it out and hope this pattern changes, for those of you weather nerds who want to track what I am watching, look up  “EPO forecast” and  “AO forecast”, both of these teleconnections are forecast to go negative in about two weeks which will be the first time since December when we were getting more useful storms.

Next Update Monday.

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