The models show our next batch of weather, for some, coming in on Wednesday. This will not be much of a storm, more of a reaction between moist air coming into Northern New Mexico mixing with cold air backing up to the continental divide to our east.
How far back west the cold retrogrades will determine who gets snow and how much. At this point, some of the models are trying to get a double play showing sub-advisory level snow at Wolf Creek with a slight push of SW flow while light snow falls around Telluride with westerly flow.
The last time this happened there was actually a storm moving into New Mexico from the west and Wolf Creek did well. This looks weaker to me at the moment so I would say based on blending the model amounts 2-5 inches would fall at Wolf Creek. I have pretty low expectations with this “event”. But we do have another 1 1/2 model cycles before coming to any conclusions.
By Friday it looks like the ridge will flatten out just in time for a closed low-pressure system to come and hit the South Central California coast, and start spinning moist air into the SW US and the Four Corners region.
The good news is the ridge, as I said, flattens out but the jet retreats to the north which means lower elevations could get some rain. I would not plan your weekend around the weather yet, there are a lot of things that could change to make this a completely different looking storm by the weekend, but it is the next best chance for decent snow.
Next Update Tuesday afternoon.