Maybe Something To Talk About

There has not been a lot to talk about this month, I have a difficult time getting too excited about tomorrow, I have said more than once that it is improbable to get significant snow from a small short wave trough retrograding from eastern Colorado over the divide then producing snow in western Colorado.

I think the GFS has a realistic outlook for the Wednesday event, it looks very similar to all of the other models.

gfswed

Does that look like something worth talking about? The only reason I mention it at all is that when you read other commentaries or watch weather media regarding upcoming storms the headlines are impressive until you find out they are referring to areas in the Central and Northern Mountains. So it is up to me to break the bad news that the Wednesday event they are referring to won’t impact us. Don’t get me wrong it is not everyone, but there are a few folks anytime I am up at Purgatory or just out and about around town that will ask about an upcoming storm only to be disappointed when I tell them it won’t affect us.

So let’s move on to the weekend. Does this look like something to talk about?

GFS

gfs-deterministic-colorado-snow_48hr-2491600

How about this?

Canadian

gem-all-colorado-snow_48hr-2491600

How about this?

Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-2524000

Where is the snow down low? It is in liquid form, I don’t care I will take it at this point.

ecmwf-deterministic-colorado-total_precip_inch-2524000

You know the drill, things could change blah blah blah. But I like what I am seeing so far.

This winter is turning out to be quite a challenge and there has been a lot of trade talk about what is going on. I talked at length early on about the effect of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. I have always tried to share how weather events around the world especially what is going on around Australia affects our weather. Incidentally the positive IOD I mentioned led to the drought in Australia and the fires followed.

One astounding thing I saw recently was the amount of cooling in the oceans relative to average the last months.

compday_E8YrYdcO8Y__1_

Check out the cooling in the North Pacific and East Pacific and the extreme cooling in the Arctic. Alaska and the Arctic have had one of the coldest winters in many years as a result of a positive Arctic Oscillation which keeps a lot of cold air over the extreme northern latitudes.

Here is what a positive AO results in for precipitation anomalies in the winter.

AO_Precipitation

Here are the last 60 days actual anomalies

cpc_gauge_global_nhemi_60day_anom_1379200

Here is the long term forecast for the AO

ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-ao-box-1897600

So hopefully we will get some relief. Last February 60% of the snow at Purgatory fell between Feb 18th and Feb 23. Last March Purgatory was just short of February’s snowfall by 10 inches. Don’t give up yet!

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