Sorry, I am a little late on this but I wanted to compare the morning data with the high-resolution data from the 11 am run, which is just now coming online. Simulated radar now shows showers moving in around 3 pm from south to north, west of the Archuleta County line all of the way into SE Utah. It then moves into Archuleta County between 4-5 pm. That being said radar is starting to show some returns west of a line from Rico to Telluride.
The morning medium and lower resolution models really juiced up the totals for this event. The high-resolution NAM model has dialed in the highlights here are the last two runs.
5 am run precipitation totals
11 am snow totals
11 am run precipitation totals
11 am run snow totals
My two cents? I have often said I don’t like using the midday model runs’ precipitation forecasts. When it comes to snow, this no exception. 7.5″ of snow in Pagosa? 6 hours earlier the same model said less than an inch. Let me just say that if that verifies I will the new biggest fan of 11 am high-resolution NAM model runs.
Based on todays model runs so far, snow totals for this event should be Wolf Creek 8-12″, Mayday 4-8″, Purgatory 3-7″, Telluride and Silverton (town) 3-6″, areas between 8,000-8,500′ 2-4″. Areas below 8,000′ 0-3″.
If I read anything interesting in the afternoon forecast discussion, I will post again around 4-5 pm. Otherwise, next post around 8 am Sunday.