Mostly As Expected

The biggest news with this storm was the lower snow levels caused by a rapid top-down cooling effect which rapidly cools the air as the atmosphere saturates. This usually happens with larger storms. When I saw it snowing at 8,000′ around 6 pm along the 160 corridor I knew the southern mid-elevations may get more snow than expected.

Precipitation totals were very close to what the high-resolution models had forecast. On the low end .25″ to .60″ according to local personal weather stations. So far, Wolf Creek has had 7″, Purgatory 4″ and Telluride 3″.

My magical ball (the 5 am NAM high-resolution model) is showing a few leftovers coming in around 10 am across the southern portion of the forecast area, basically between 160 to the north and the Stateline to the south. This is not an anomaly because the model has been touting this for 24 hours and I believe I mentioned it yesterday.  I have been too quick to give up on a storm many times in the past. The model shows most of the energy snowing out west of 550 with an inch or two. We will see, but don’t be surprised. The timing for the onset of rain yesterday was nearly dead on with that model. The model shows up to an inch today at Purgatory with 2-5″ at Telluride and Wolf Creek.

For my Denver travelers, it looks the biggest challenge for snowy conditions will be over Park County late morning into early afternoon, particularly in and out of Fairplay, but  I don’t see anything that would close highways.

Monday another NW flow storm should blow in and may affect areas of the Northern San Juans. For the rest of us, there are early signs of a major storm coming about a week from Monday.

Next Update Monday afternoon. BTW Last I looked it was dumping over near Pagosa (maybe just east of the area?) I would love updates throughout the day to see how that ends up! Thanks for following and have a great day!

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