The most recent high-resolution model that is just coming out, has trimmed back the activity and totals for most areas except Wolf Creek. However, there may be some other factors that come into play that model is not seeing.
The system already had a fast start, without radar it is really difficult to see what is going on (btw I have a radar update I will share tomorrow). I would expect spotty bursts of moderate to heavy rain and snow for the next few hours for our area, with more consistent snowfall over Wolf Creek.
With the well advertised dry slot of air I have talked about coming in, we should start to see some convection pop, between now and 1 pm from SW Utah all the way to Pagosa.
The upshot of this, is the dry air can fire convection, the convection can trigger showers and thunderstorms, which could enhance precipitation, which could then lead to more consistent snow breaking back out in the higher elevations of La Plata County later this afternoon and evening. As I said, between now and then it should be scattered- but not necessarily light.
As far as the snow amounts go, through late Saturday, I am sticking with 5-8 for Purgatory, I will bump up Telluride to the same. I am going to go against the grain a bit at Wolf Creek and go with 12-18″ Depending on how the above scenario plays out, I may be too low for Purgatory, but I don’t want to overpromise.
I am still feeling good about total liquid at low to mid-elevations from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch when it is all said and done! Next Update around 2 pm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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