Here We Go!

Here is the radar as of 2 am Friday morning.

Screenshot 2020-03-13 at 2.08.56 AM

I am reasonably (if not pleasantly) satisfied with how the NAM 3km high-resolution models, future radar has initialized with the current conditions.

Here is the simulated future radar for that model for 2 am.

Screenshot 2020-03-13 at 2.14.00 AM

Sticking with that model, precipitation should be occurring over most of the area between 4 am and 6 am.

I have not seen any compelling evidence that the storm will slow down considerably before the precipitation starts. Here is a rough timestamp of the simulated radar conditions portrayed by the same high-resolution model between now and 7 am.

5 am

Screenshot 2020-03-13 at 2.46.15 AM

6 am

Screenshot 2020-03-13 at 2.47.47 AM

7 amScreenshot 2020-03-13 at 2.50.02 AM

 

Why only 7 am? Because despite the decent initialization, this is the most recent model run generated at midnight I and have a healthy superstition with overnight model runs right before the storm is due in. The next run starts at 6 am and enough should be out that I can complete the next update before 9 am. Interestingly enough I just heard a little graupel fall outside as I finished typing this paragraph.

It appears this storm will be fast and furious-by that I mean most of it will happen over a very short period of time before we hit a lull of sorts this afternoon. That may not be a bad thing, as I will explain in the next update.

Overall totals have not really changed in the models since I finished my last update yesterday afternoon. The 6 am model run will likely be my finally determining factor on snow totals, if nothing changes between now and then, expect those to be increased, in some cases dramatically!

257 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2020

COZ019-131700-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0006.200313T0900Z-200314T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON AND RICO
257 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2020

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT ABOVE 8500 FEET…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY
ON US 550 OVER RED MOUNTAIN, MOLAS, AND COAL BANK PASSES. US 160
LEADING UP TO WOLF CREEK PASS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED. PERIODS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

It sounds like the waves of precipitation are already moving in, and my suspicions tell me some of you have woken up to check it out. Over the last 20 minutes, I have watched some heavy near whiteout snow bands hit the Purg snow cam. If the model is right that should continue and get more regular. I will be updating again before 9 am with the latest expected totals. Don’t miss that! Be careful out there today. Thanks for following!

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