Thank you!
Thank you to those of you who have been my second set of eyes and have pointed out a couple of typos here and there that I have made over the last few days. No excuses! Like many of you, I am running on little sleep, especially tracking this storm. What can I say, I have the maximum strength reading glasses I can buy locally and they are a little weak for me. I do my best to proofread a couple of times but every now and again the puck still slips past this goalie. I can and do edit when people point it out. Unfortunately, for my email subscribers, once I hit publish you get it, errors and all. Thank you for your patience.
Contest
I introduced the new details this afternoon, I doubled the total purse and I am drawing 3 winners instead of 1! Full details were released at 1:20 this afternoon. I have a link at the bottom of the update if you have not yet read it.
The Storm Is On The Way!
Depending on which source you believe, the closed low is moving into Baja California. Moisture continues to stream northeast and has really picked up in Arizona.
The NWS has upgraded the wording to a Winter Storm Warning. Here is how they split it out.
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
1134 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35
MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER US-550 TO INCLUDE RED MOUNTAIN, MOLAS AND COAL
BANK PASSES.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
1134 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET…
* WHAT…SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 MPH AT TIMES WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
* WHERE…IN UTAH, TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND LA SAL AND ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. IN COLORADO, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SLUSHY
TO SNOWPACKED ROADS DEVELOPING. VISIBILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT
TIMES DUE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES
Still nothing yet for the mid-elevations. I know they are thinking about it, I can sense it! They might wait until a little later once they “see” it with their own eyes (webcams). I like to call those “visible confirmation” advisories “Duh-visories”.
I could post the new model precipitation output runs from the Euro, GFS and Canadian, but very little has changed. If you missed them check out the earlier posts.
So here is the high-resolution NAM 3km model with liquid and snowfall from this morning and the most recent from this afternoon.
First, this morning’s run. These maps show the amounts ending at 6 pm Friday
Liquid
Snow
Here is the most recent run from the high-resolution 3km model. The maps show the amounts through midnight Saturday (morning).
Liquid
Snow
If either of these is correct, it would be the largest single snowfall of the season for the mid-elevations!
The reality is we will see a lot of melting by tomorrow afternoon. Before that happens we should see up to 3 inches for Durango and Bayfield. Mid-elevations could get 5-12 inches depending on where you are, areas above 8,000 feet will get the higher of those totals.
Mayday will likely be the big winner in this with 10-15 inches before the strong spring sun works its evil/magic through the clouds, Upper Lemon will be right behind it.
As I mentioned above the contest has changed, it is better for entrants, and even better for local businesses! Read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!