Saturday Update

Today

So far the light snow event has been non-existent for lower elevations. Light rain showers have broken out in some areas. Models show an uptick in activity this afternoon, the first parameter showing this is the rapid increase in CAPE values this over the next 1-3 hours. This could lead to isolated heavier showers, and rumble of thunder and perhaps a little graupel falling.

Here are the CAPE values for 2 pm today

Screenshot 2020-03-21 at 12.10.53 PM

The last time we talked about CAPE was March 13th. These values are significantly higher than we experienced then. The higher the value the better the chance of convection.

Not surprisingly, the same model shows that leading into increased rain and snow showers late this afternoon.

Screenshot 2020-03-21 at 12.18.02 PM

The model is showing more of a southern trajectory into Archuleta County, I am not certain it will follow that exact path but we will find out soon enough. The lower resolution models are showing a brief period of heavier snow, late afternoon to early evening above 8,000, feet favoring the northern halves of La Plata and Archuleta Counties.

Sunday should be a good day to continue cleaning up after the storm. Snow slides from my roof have barricaded my front door and buried my grill in the back. I am planning on grilling tomorrow so I have to get that cleaned up. Also, a path to my front porch must be cleared for Amazon deliveries this week (things that I could not buy locally).

Monday’s Storm

Monday’s system is not going to be like what we just experienced. At the moment it looks like a late Monday afternoon start although it may end up being Monday night.

Here are the latest liquid precipitation runs from the Euro, Canadian and GFS models.

First the Euro, it is proudly displaying a “Durango Donut Special”. Unfortunately, this is not an anomalous run, this is the fourth run I have seen it happen.

euro12zpre

Next up the Canadian

cmc12zprecip

And the GFS

gfs12zMon24hr

The big take away is that wet unsettled conditions are likely to continue next week. There is still a chance of a bigger storm later in the week. In fact, that is what I am focusing on right now, but I don’t plan to write about it until Tuesday.

Next update Sunday, I will take a better look and rain/snow levels and timing for Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site.

New prizes have been added to the contest! It is better for entrants, and even better for local businesses! If you have not checked it out yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

Click here and donate for 3 chances to win!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

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