So far the light snow event has been non-existent for lower elevations. Light rain showers have broken out in some areas. Models show an uptick in activity this afternoon, the first parameter showing this is the rapid increase in CAPE values this over the next 1-3 hours. This could lead to isolated heavier showers, and rumble of thunder and perhaps a little graupel falling.
Here are the CAPE values for 2 pm today
The last time we talked about CAPE was March 13th. These values are significantly higher than we experienced then. The higher the value the better the chance of convection.
Not surprisingly, the same model shows that leading into increased rain and snow showers late this afternoon.
The model is showing more of a southern trajectory into Archuleta County, I am not certain it will follow that exact path but we will find out soon enough. The lower resolution models are showing a brief period of heavier snow, late afternoon to early evening above 8,000, feet favoring the northern halves of La Plata and Archuleta Counties.
Sunday should be a good day to continue cleaning up after the storm. Snow slides from my roof have barricaded my front door and buried my grill in the back. I am planning on grilling tomorrow so I have to get that cleaned up. Also, a path to my front porch must be cleared for Amazon deliveries this week (things that I could not buy locally).
Monday’s system is not going to be like what we just experienced. At the moment it looks like a late Monday afternoon start although it may end up being Monday night.
Here are the latest liquid precipitation runs from the Euro, Canadian and GFS models.
First the Euro, it is proudly displaying a “Durango Donut Special”. Unfortunately, this is not an anomalous run, this is the fourth run I have seen it happen.
Next up the Canadian
And the GFS
The big take away is that wet unsettled conditions are likely to continue next week. There is still a chance of a bigger storm later in the week. In fact, that is what I am focusing on right now, but I don’t plan to write about it until Tuesday.
Next update Sunday, I will take a better look and rain/snow levels and timing for Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site.
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