Bonus Post-I Can’t Sleep Here’s The Weather Junk I Look At When That Happens

Midnight Sunday Morning

Some people are good sleepers, they can almost sleep on command. They can close their eyes and take a nap quicker than I can make a decision to change the channel on the TV during a pharmaceutical commercial. I, on the other hand, go to sleep when I think I am tired, read a few pages in whatever book I am reading at the moment, then turn off the light and go to sleep.

I wake up a couple to a few hours later, look out the window, etc. Then I go back to bed and I either fall back to sleep or not. Lately, it is the latter. My mind gets flooded with thoughts: good, bad, stupid, random. “At least I can sleep later if I want”. “They really should know by now how many positive cases of the virus there are here”. ” I bet if I feed the cat now he won’t bug us later”. “I think I would like to learn more about Quantum Physics”.

Up until a couple of weeks ago, I could wake up, check out a few things in the weather then I could head out to the Rec Center by 5 am and join all of the other people who wake up early. That’s all changed, so by 5 am I am now thinking, “remind me again why I sold all of those perfectly good fitness machines I had-for pennies on the dollar at garage sales over the last couple of years?” “That’s it, I am never throwing anything away again!”

Having properly set the stage for my current mental condition, apologies if I overshared… “Did I overshare, maybe I only should have had two lead-in paragraphs…”

Let’s Go Precipitation Hunting

We basically have 10 days to get through March, we have been in a cold wet pattern for a while now, how long can it continue? Here is the Euro ensemble precipitation anomaly forecast. I think it has been a couple of weeks since I posted the last one before we entered this cool wet pattern. What this will show us is the liquid amount of above or below-average precipitation this model is forecasting, in this case through March 30th. This model is made up of 51 separate mini-models all under the umbrella of the European model, this run shows the results of the mean of those 51 mini models.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-swus-qpf_anom_10day-5612800

From what this model shows the SW US as a whole will remain in a wetter than average pattern through March 30th. Not by a huge margin, but overall all March will go down as much above average precipitation month, which is great, and right when we need it!

How about temperatures? I don’t have a 10-day parameter for that model, but I do have a 7-day output. Here are the average temperatures between noon today and noon next Sunday, March 29th. Average temperatures are calculated as the average “24-hour temperature for the day”. In other words, not just the highs or the lows.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-swus-t2m_f_anom_7day-5504800

That is pretty cold relative to what the typical 24-hour temperature is for this time of year.

So it appears the pattern continues for 7-10 days.

Hmmm, colder than average, wetter than average, what does that equal?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-swus-snow_240hr-5612800

Once again this is the Euro 51 member ensemble model. Ensemble models are not always my favorite to look at in the short term. So Let’s look at the operational models.

And now I am going to show you exactly why I don’t always share long term operational model runs until I see consistency. You are going to see how the GFS can change in 6 hours and the Euro and Canadian in 12 hours.

Here is the latest Euro 10-day precipitation run.

euro10day

Euro 12 hours earlier

euro1210day

Canadian current

cmc10day

Canadian 12 hours earlier

cmc1210day

GFS current

gfs10day

GFS just 6 hours earlier!

GFS1810day

Look out how much further south the heavier precipitation is on the 6 hour older GFS run.

So how do you choose? You don’t. That is why I say time after time, there is little consensus, we need to wait a while, I am giving the GFS a timeout, etc. etc.

We will get a little rain and snow Monday, but the majority will be coming sometime Friday or Saturday. By late next weekend, it appears that we will be transitioning into more of a tranquil pattern, again it is too early to tell. But that is what I am watching.

Next Update late Sunday Morning, I will talk more about yesterday afternoon and Monday’s precipitation event. I think I am going to go out in the garage and see if my old weight set is there…

Wait there was one other thing I wanted to update you on. There has been one additional prize added to the contest line up.

1st Prize $250 Gift certificate(s)

2nd Price $150 Gift Certificate(s)

3rd Prize $100 Gift Certificate(s)

4th Prize 2 tickets to San Juan Brewfest (Saturday, August 29th)

If you have not checked it out yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

Click here and donate for 4 chances to win!

Click here to contact

Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

 

 

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