Before I jump into the details of the disturbance moving in this afternoon, here are a couple of cloud pictures sent in by followers. First up, Brian Dommer sent this photo in.
What we have here are lower elevation cumulus clouds, either cumulus mediocris or fractus (I can’t tell from the picture), with cirrus clouds thousands of feet above them.
The next picture was sent by follower Ann.
These are just some pretty cirrus clouds at sunset.
I love to see what you see and I am always interested in getting reports of the weather that is occurring where you are.
A Busy Late Afternoon And Evening
A disturbance is going to hitch a ride today into our are on the jet stream, which will be screaming overhead most of the day. This piece of energy is going to pass by during a period of high instability with high CAPE values and will act as a possible severe storm creator in our area. The longer the sun is out the quicker the guns will come out. Guns as in thunder and lightning that is.
Here is the jet stream as of 8 am
Right out of the southwest at around 140 knots.
Here it is at 2 pm
Here are the CAPE values. In case you haven’t been keeping track, every time I post the CAPE value output we have gotten thunderstorms in the area.
6 pm (when the peak values are present)
The GFS shows the highest precipitation from this system. I am hesitant to post any of the models’ precipitation forecasts because there are so many things that could happen this afternoon. Some areas will cloud up and see nothing, other areas may get a brief downpour or two, and other areas may pick up a quick couple of inches of snow. The snow level should be around 8,000 feet but could temporarily fall during thunderstorms!
Precipitation will most likely start between Noon and 3 pm. Areas above 9,000 feet may see an earlier start. I will post again around 2 pm today. Thanks for following and continuing to support the site.
Two more prizes were added to the contest, one I mentioned yesterday. The other is brand new. So for 4th place, I will draw for the winner’s choice of either two tickets to San Juan Brew Fest, courtesy of Tim Walsworth and the San Juan Brew Fest or a $50 gift card to Nini’s Taqueria courtesy of the owners Abby and Andy. The 5th place winner will receive the unclaimed prize of the 4th place winner.
If you have not checked it out yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!
Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!