Model Indecision On End Of Week System

The Euro has been more consistent than the GFS lately. I am leaning towards the Euro and the Canadian for the late week system. They both bring a small piece of energy in Thursday morning, but only over eastern Archuleta, Conejos, Mineral and Rio Grande Counties. It is not insignificant, the models are showing 6-12 inches of snow over Wolf Creek Pass. I assume it is some weird retrograding mini low-pressure system or a shortwave. Regardless, it is not an anomaly, I have seen this feature for days now in the models, just not in the GFS yet.

Then Friday, what looks like a fairly insignificant dry system tries to work its way across Utah in unfavorable flow. It is too early to write off at the moment. I will update on it over the next couple of days and we will see how she develops.

This morning I mentioned that I would discuss the “why”, as in why are these systems all of the sudden coming in weak? My feeling is that we are heading into a large scale pattern change into more tranquil weather. As I have mentioned, sometimes we don’t realize the pattern has changed until after the fact. Stormy patterns start and finish with weak storms. I believe we have begun that transition and it may take a week to see the full effects. In fact, it shows up on the long-range Euro. It is a somewhat seasonal phenomenon around here to have the western ridge pop by April 1st and bring in those winds that everyone just loves (j/k)!

Here is a snapshot of the pattern on Friday from the Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-5332000

This shows the placement of the low-pressure system, the blue indicates the possibility for stormy weather.

Fast forward to next Wednesday, April 1st.

eurowed18

See how quickly the ridge popped up in the west?

Now look at the GFS it is already trying to bring in another trough into the west on April 1st.

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-5774800

Which is correct? It is debatable right now, but I am keeping an eye on it.

This is the time of year people ask about outdoor vegetation. Overnight tonight and early tomorrow I do expect temperatures in the mid-20s, for what that is worth. I will try to include temps in my daily updates for the anxious gardeners!

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