It’s March 27th and a small dry storm is going to blow through with 12-1 snow to liquid ratios. Generally, 1/2- 3 inches should accumulate depending on your location.

Areas around Silverton and north up to Red Mountain Pass and the Telluride area will likely see 4-6 inches. Ouray could be looking at a Gorge event with several inches–perhaps a foot–falling on the northern approach to Red Mountain Pass.

Further south, Mayday and NW & NE (ridge) areas of Durango Ridge Ranch may see 3-5 inches.

My top secret snow elevation model now shows 5600′ as the magic number for the day. So no rain as far as that model is concerned. However, the high-resolution overnight model is trying to show some light rain showers below 7,000 feet this afternoon. Apparently, all of the models’ differences still have not been worked out.

Light snow has started falling at Wolf Creek Pass where 3-6 inches should accumulate throughout the day. Snow should be starting from west to east by mid to late morning, although the only thing I see on the Grand Junction radar is snow showers around Grand Junction.

For snowfall today, I like a combination of the Euro and NAM high-resolution model.

Euro snow through Saturday morning

NAM snow through early Saturday morning

Of course, given the fact that we do have a shortwave trough moving through today and it is late March, I have to mention there will be the chance of some convective showers, perhaps leading to some banded snow showers. The CAPE peaks around noon, then again around 4 pm. The values are not as high as we have seen, so I am not holding my breath on this.

As I said yesterday this may turn out to be a nice little distraction for us today.

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