The Models Agree

On a miss? What seems like an impossibility is a consensus among the models. Yesterday I was fighting through some connectivity issues, then I got sidetracked on some personal issues and never got the update done. It’s probably a good thing because there were still discrepancies among the different models and run to run consistency was poor for the models individually.

Now they all seem to agree to a certain extent that the position of the cold front in the upper midwest and to our north is going to suppress the low-pressure system dumping on California and stall it out. It barely makes it into Nevada, then as the cold front finally heads south late this weekend it pushes whatever is left of the low south of us.


Here are the trough positions for Saturday. The core of the California system is to our south hugging the Mexico border headed towards Texas.


The cold front accompanies the trough, it is massive and centered in Canada but affecting Montana and Wyoming headed towards Colorado.

Here it is 24 hours later late Sunday.


I have to show the GFS because you usually have to blend the two because of their individual biases (GFS is too far east and the Euro is too far west).


If you can imagine combining the two, you would have, what looks to me, a Front Range and Denver snow event. With some snow in areas that favor northerly flow in western Colorado.

The temperature contrast is impressive. Here is Friday afternoon the temperatures are showing how far above or below average they are.


Moving on to Sunday afternoon


Here are the actual temps for Sunday afternoon


This would be pretty crazy if it happened.

Unusual? Not really April is historically the second snowiest month of the year for Denver and the Front Range.

Also worth mentioning is what looks to me to be the biggest set up for the most severe weather of the year so far on Sunday for eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, Mississippi then moving northeast into the deep south and then the southeast states. That cold of front hitting the south this time of year would result in a huge outbreak. Sub 1000 low pressure in the south like that is not good. That is actually the remnants from the California system.


So there if you are sick of everything on TV and you are out of books to read stick with me there is going to be a lot of weather to talk about in the coming days.

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