Saturday Update

On and off snow showers have started along the pass areas, heaviest at Wolf Creek pass at the moment.

Capture

Otherwise, pretty quiet as expected. The trend continued in the models of reducing the activity for today, although they show an increase in activity tomorrow it is still fairly minimal. For lower elevations, the models agree that clouds will be more common than rain. The GFS is still bullish on accumulating snow for mountain areas with 3-6″ for areas from Silverton to Red Mountain and over to Telluride. Euro has been more in the 2-4″ category. Again, as I said yesterday that is a tall order this time of year unless you have a big storm. As I will show you in a minute comparing those totals to the high-resolution model is pretty sobering.

There is no sign of any type of significant storm in the near future in the latest model runs. However, the models are suggesting an active pattern with some type of wave coming through nearly every day. Unfortunately, this does not usually equate to decent low elevation precipitation. The problem is in this active zonal flow pattern none of the pieces of energy have time to develop before they get here. The models tend to overproduce the mountain precipitation as well unless you specifically look at the higher resolution models.

Here is the latest GFS for total precipitation by Monday morning

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_precip_inch-7394800

This shows .64″ at Telluride with an inch around Red Mountain pass. Compare that to the 3km NAM model.

nam-nest-conus-colorado-total_precip_inch-7394800

.18″ at Telluride with much higher amounts on isolated uninhabited areas. That takes the wind out of the sails. The case is the same at Wolf Creek as the higher resolution model shifts the precipitation south.

The distortion is more prevalent when you compare snowfall amounts.

GFS

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7394800

Here the GFS shows 4.5″ at Telluride with near 8″ at Red Mountain, compare that to 3km NAM

nam-nest-conus-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7384000

.9″ at Telluride with nearly a foot at Wilson Peak and the San Miguel mountains. That is probably a more realistic scenario.

Overall, this weekend looks a bit boring, unless you live in the southeast. Believe it or not, this insignificant piece of energy (for us) is going to drop south and rapidly enhance and cause another severe storm outbreak from east Texas to the Carolinas on Sunday and Monday. I don’t think it will be as severe as the outbreak last week but still incredible to see what happens as these things exit our state.

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