Warm Then A Short-Lived Cool Down

As a potent trough of low pressure moves into California the next couple of days the ridge will move to the east, and the southwest flow will pick up driving temps in many locations into the low 80’s. The low will bring snow to the Sierra as well as parts of Nevada and Idaho. It will move to our north and Wyoming will get snow. We will see a temporary cooldown with temps back down into the upper 60’s in the lower elevations on Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually increase after that.

As far as precipitation goes the outlook is still bleak. The models were advertising some rain as the disturbance moves east to the north of us. But that is looking less likely in the current model runs. Unfortunately, the threat will be dry thunderstorms and gusty winds. I will be monitoring this and I will post if that comes to fruition. The first blip of moisture I see in the medium term is next Sunday (5/24) according to the Euro model. The GFS does not agree but it shows a minor disturbance by Wednesday the 27th.

Climatologically, May is our second driest month of the year, June is our driest month. We are still below average and will finish May below average in all likelihood by about .75″ inches in most areas.

I am not a big fan of comparing precipitation amounts to average during late spring and early summer. Below average is not unusual when the averages are so low. The weather pattern plays such a huge role it is not unusual at all to have very little precipitation here in April, May, and June. I would go as far as saying it is more common to have below-average precipitation than above-average precipitation. Why? Because the wet years are anomalously wet and they “set the curve”. If you look at the data for May for example, just over the last 30 years there are many years where we have had 0″-.3″ of precipitation, but every few years you will see totals up to 3.5″ that really inflates the “average” total. Holy crap, sometimes I even amaze myself at how much of a nerd I am.

So more of the same on the way, with a slight cool down on Wednesday. I will check in again before then to update on the potential for dry thunderstorms.

I have had a few people recognize the masked version of me in public and already ask about next winter. My money is on La Nina, but it is too early to talk about that. Don’t be fooled into thinking that La Nina by itself correlates to below-average snowfall. That does not apply here, El Nino, La Nina and neutral ENSO have less impact on San Juans than other parameters. As I said, too early to have that discussion today.

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