Apparently The GFS Got It Right

5 days ago I talked about the model differences as the Euro was showing hot and dry while the GFS was advertising afternoon showers from midweek on. It looks like another sunny day will give way to spotty mostly mid and higher elevation storms this afternoon with an even better chance tomorrow and Saturday.

The GFS is going a step further and saying that we are transitioning into a pattern of above-average precipitation over the next 10 days. We will see, but I am impressed and a little shocked that the GFS saw this 5 days ago. Obviously, if I would have bought into the GFS scheme I would have posted yesterday.

Yesterday the Euro didn’t see the pop-up storms until its morning run came out about 30 minutes past noon yesterday afternoon. It was enough to convince the National Weather Service to introduce “POPs” (probabilities of precipitation) in the point forecasts. At my house, they changed from mostly sunny to 60% chance of t-storms. In the end, I got about 5 drops of rain, but I did get a report from just across the highway at Lake Durango of a ten-minute shower. The point being these things will be very spotty and difficult to predict where they are going to set up. The GFS is showing a lot of activity for eastern La Plata County and all of Archuleta the next few afternoons. But don’t be surprised anywhere to see something pop up, especially above 7,500′ in the mid to late afternoon hours.

Hopefully, we will have more to talk about in the coming days.

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One thought on “Apparently The GFS Got It Right

  1. Bettina M Moore

    I had to get my car in for service yesterday and it was a pretty nice downpour when I picked it up. It was wonderful. When I got home to Farmington I could see those great clouds but we didn’t get anything. It was sad.

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