Today we should see what the NWS would say is “an uptick in areal coverage” for thunderstorms which simply means chances are better that a larger area might be affected. The ingredients are mostly in place, increasing CAPE values and relatively high PWATs. Now we just need the sun to stay out long enough to get some decent heating and lift.
Here are the CAPE values throughout today and tonight. Remember CAPE just refers to the energy required for storms to develop, the higher the number the better the chances. Yesterday we were in the 700 range when the storms started developing.
An uptick around 8 pm
Next are the PWATs. PWAT stands for Precipitable Water, which just refers to how much liquid precipitation would accumulate if all of the moisture fell in one vertical column in one place.
Noon PWAT showing about 3/4 of an inch over DRO
7 pm tonight
10 pm tonight
You may not think .95″ is a lot for PWAT, however, the “average” PWAT for May 30th is approximately .31″.
If this pans out the way the model says we could get some rare nighttime rainfall. It looks like this pattern will continue for another 6 days, this is not monsoonal moisture, it is just an active pattern of weather moving disturbances under the ridge. We have at least another month before we will start to worry about the monsoon. Until then let’s just enjoy starting the driest month of the year with above-average (nonsoon) rainfall!