A Winter Set Up For A Summer Storm

A broad trough is off the California coast. A closed low comes onshore between LA and San Diego and opens up and moves toward our region. Then a negatively tilted trough develops as it approaches the Four Corners and opens up, bringing relatively large amounts of precipitation. Sound familiar? It should, that is how all good winter storms for our area come together. But, it is June 4th. Hmmm.

This should sound familiar too. The GFS is about 12 hours faster than the Euro. Both models are showing their biases. The GFS is always too fast–the Euro is usually a little too slow. The Canadian is going crazy overdoing the precipitation. You see, these models recognize the setup and are handling it just like it is a winter storm.

Depending on which model you believe showers could start late tomorrow afternoon or after 3 am Saturday morning. However, they could both be correct. The Euro struggles with these afternoon pop up showers, the GFS is for some reason more sensitive and shows them developing. So it could be that we see afternoon showers tomorrow afternoon unaffiliated with the closed low coming onshore. Another 18 hours of model runs should clear up the timing issues.

Precipitation totals vary widely but all point to amounts that will put us above average for June right out of the chute. Here they are as of today, they have been trending up about every run, it will be interesting to see how they look tomorrow at this time. These totals are through Sunday morning.

Euro

eurototal

German

Germantotal

GFS

gfstotal

Canadian gotta love it!

CMCtotal

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