Model precipitation totals have been pretty consistent although the Euro popped up a bit on its most current run. The GFS and Canadian both still expect scattered showers this afternoon. As I said yesterday those are not really affiliated with the low-pressure area. The Euro and the high-resolution North American model still do not see those showers developing. I would not be surprised to see a few pop-up storms after 2 pm. The first precipitation directly related to the actual storm system won’t move in until tonight. All models show the heaviest rain developing tomorrow morning between 6 am and 9 am.
A couple of folks that I ran into shopping today asked how confident I was with NOAA’s 90% forecast for showers tomorrow. The Weatherguy part of me, the more scientific version of myself, feels pretty confident given the consistency in the models. That being said, the weather fan in me, the one who is superstitious, is a little afraid of such a bold forecast especially when the Herald writes an article about the storm and quotes the NWS who refers to the storm as being “Monsoon like”. If you have lived here a while you know that sometimes that type of overhyping leads to a huge bust. Again that is my superstitious side talking not my scientific side.
On a side note, the only thing similar between this storm and the Monsoon is rain. It is probably the worst analogy I have ever seen. A closed low bringing in cooler temperatures with a negatively tilted trough and moisture is not even remotely close to the Monsoon. A far better comparison would be the winter storm scenario I compared it to yesterday or even a remnant low-pressure system from a dying tropical depression.
Sorry for the rant, let’s move on to model precipitation totals.
First up the GFS
The German ICON model
The Canadian Model
Here is the newly issued Flood Watch for our area.
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1004 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox
Valley/Lower Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas
River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Eastern Uinta Mountains-Eastern
Including the cities of Ignacio, Silverton, Mancos, Bayfield, Ouray,
Manila, Fort Duchesne, Dove Creek, Jensen, Nucla, Lake City,
Randlett, Ballard, Dutch John, Telluride, Pagosa Springs, Cortez,
Hesperus, Vernal, Rico, Durango, and Gateway
1004 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has expanded the
* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of southwest Colorado and
northeast Utah, including the following areas, in southwest
Colorado, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River,
Northwest San Juan Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River,
San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains. In
northeast Utah, Eastern Uinta Basin and Eastern Uinta Mountains.
* From late tonight through Saturday afternoon
* A potent storm system will bring significant moisture to eastern
Utah and southwest Colorado late tonight into Saturday afternoon,
increasing the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
* The flash flood threat poses the greatest risk for slot canyons,
slick rock areas, normally dry washes, areas of steep terrain and
over recent burn scars, including the 416 Fire.
To recap, the Weatherguy in me feels pretty good about all of this coming together. So be safe if you are in a flood-prone area. I will post early tomorrow after I look out the window, which as you know is Step 1!
Thanks for following and your kind support.