As the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon winds will continue to pick up, lasting a little later into the evening than usual. Snow still looks good for areas generally north of Coal Bank Pass, including Silverton in town, starting tonight until tomorrow morning. Telluride and Ouray also look good for a little snow. Accumulation may depend on how quickly the roads and grounds cool. Cold air advection will saturate the modified airmass leading to the precipitation later this evening.
As I said a few flurries around Purgatory overnight would not surprise me. For most of us, the colder overnight temps will be the big story. Often times during the late spring in the absence of any storm systems, it is not unusual for the lower valleys to get colder than the mid and higher elevations. That will not be the case this time.
The GFS has done one thing better than the other models, it nails the temperatures. The latest GFS run shows 33 degrees at DRO mid and higher elevations definitely could hit the 20’s overnight. So take precautions if you are at all concerned.
Here are the overnight forecasted lows. Mid-elevations can use that 28 at Pagosa as a reference.
The 20 at Telluride gives the higher elevations a frame of reference. Match up the colors, if your area is a darker red than Pagosa but not as dark as Telluride you will know your low temperature is somewhere between the two.
Here are the snow totals from three models.
North American High Resolution
Here is the new Winter Weather Advisory just issued. **Note this advisory as issued was very broad extending to Vail, I edited out areas that are out of our region in SW Colorado.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
234 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2020
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE
234 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE… NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.
TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLYHIGHWAY 550 SOUTH OF OURAY TO RED MOUNTAIN PASS.
After this, temps will be on the rebound and back to above average by the end of the week. Tune in tomorrow I will start looking at our next chance of precipitation, Saturday.
Thanks for following! Anyone who gets snow check in with me in the morning and let me know how you did.